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The IIJD Newsletter:
   
AU Mediation Talks Fail: Kenyan Crisis Likely to Half Economic Growth This Year
By Vanessa Wu and Karoliina Gröhn
January 11, 2008
About 600 people have been killed in Kenya and almost 250,000 made refugees following violence after last month’s disputed presidential election, in which incumbent Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner by Kenya’s Electoral Commission [1]. Opposition candidate Raila Odinga, who was widely expected to win, claims he was cheated of victory through electoral fraud. Both sides have been accused of vote rigging. The presidential poll was described by international observers as falling seriously below international standards; voter turnout in one area was recorded as 115 percent [2].
The post-election violence has been fanned by ethnic tensions that have plagued Kenya since its independence in 1963. Kibaki has the backing of the Kikuyus, the largest ethnic group in Kenya, while Odinga has rallied the support of the Luos and Kalenjins and has established a base across other ethnic communities. All ethnic groups have participated in the fighting; and both Kibaki and Obango have accused each other’s supporters of ethnic cleansing after the result was announced. In the country of 36 million people, the people most affected by the violence have been the poor in slums and rural areas. In the Rift Valley area alone, over 100,000 people have been forced to flee their homes, and 30 people were burned alive in a church in the town of Eldoret [3].
Kibaki has since then offered to form “a government of national unity that would not only unite Kenyans but would also help in the healing and reconciliation process" [4]. In this way, Mr Kibaki reached out to the opposition to stop the violence and called on both parties to engage in talks. Odinga rejected Kibaki’s calls for a coalition government, holding firm in his stance that Kibaki should step down. He has agreed to only participate in talks with his rival under the presence of international mediators.
Such mediation talks were attempted on January 8-10 as Ghanaian President and African Union Chairman John Kufuor tried to reach an agreement with Kibaki and Odinga. No agreement was made. In fact, Kufuor failed to even have the two sides meet face to face. He did announce, however, that both sides had agreed to work together with a panel African leaders under the leadership of Mr. Kofi Annan, the former United Nations Secretary General [5]. Kufuor’s failure in Kenya places some doubt on the ability of the African Union to become a “crisis fixer” on the continent [6].
Much to the dismay of the opposition, Kibaki did not waste any time on appointing his cabinet members. The new members were sworn in on Thursday; the same day that AU Chairman John Kufuor left Nairobi [7]. Moving ahead with the new government was widely judged as “inappropriate” at this acute time of political, economical, and social chaos in the country [8]. Responding to the lack of cooperation on Kibaki’s part, Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement announced on Friday (Jan. 11) that three days of extensive protesting will take place next week, January 16-18. Protests are being planned in 25 towns across the country.
World leaders have been horrified by the bloodshed in what has been viewed as one of Africa’s most stable democracies and flourishing economies. The crisis is likely to have an enormous impact on the Kenyan economy. Tourism, which ranks as one of the top five foreign currency earners in the country, has already suffered losses up to $1 billion. More than 5000 tourists cancelled their trips last week alone. Economists have made careful estimates that the crisis could as much as half the economic growth rate for the upcoming year [9]. The projected growth rate for the year 2008 had been 7-8 percent – one of the most promising on the continent [10].
The IIJD strongly sides with the democratic process in Kenya, advocating for the Kenyan people suffering from the on-going political crisis. The IIJD strongly condemns any political interference in the electoral process. Therefore, the underlying causes of the crisis need to be determined; namely, the questions rising from the election need to be investigated by an independent and impartial party. A better organized and freely monitored re-run election needs to take place. President Kibaki must bear the responsibility for the killings. More than 500 of his own people have died to date. The IIJD calls on the international community to refuse to reward dictators and those who violate the democratic process in the world. By accepting that Mr. Kibaki remains in power, even in the case of a unity government, we are encouraging other leaders to do the same in the future in Africa. Kibaki’s resignation should be advocated by the international community and particularly by other African leaders. Any mediation talks should be accompanied by international, third party observers, just as Odinga has requested. The current political, social, and economical downhill can and must be reversed as soon as possible.
 
Please also see: IIJD Official Position on Elections in Africa and Pre-election Violence Brings Tension
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