Malam Bacai Sanha, candidate for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde party (PAIGC), has been declared the winner of presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. The electoral commission made the announcement on July 29th after ascertaining that Sanha had received 63 percent of the run-off vote, coming in 94,286 votes ahead of rival and former President Kumba Yala. Augusto Olivais, Sanha’s campaign director on behalf of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea, asserted that, "the result reflects the political maturity of our people… It's democracy that has won."

Sanha appears to have benefited from the support of those who had backed independent candidate Henriqu Rosa, who finished third in the preliminary round of voting last month. Guinea-Bissau held the first round of the presidential election to replace assassinated president Joao Vieira on June 28th, in which Sanha, Yala, and Rosa led with approximately 39, 29, and 24 percent of the vote, respectively. (President of the National Assembly Raimundo Pereira has been serving as interim head of state since March.) The constitution of Guinea-Bissau provides that in the event that no presidential candidate wins 50 percent of the votes in the first round, the two leading candidates will participate in a run-off. Following the preliminary vote, seven of the nine eliminated candidates threw their support behind Sanha.

Sanha served as interim head of state between June 1999 and May 2000 following a civil war and the departure of then-president Vieira. This is the third presidential campaign for 62 year old independence war veteran, who was defeated first by Yala in 1999 and then again by Vieira in 2005. According to Sports Minister Baciro Bja, his past concessions clearly distinguish Sanha as “a man for peace and stability.” Bja predicted that the greatest trials facing Sanha, “will be the reform of the security services, notably restructuring the army, the organization of a national reconciliation conference and the re-establishment of the credibility of the state.”

Guinea-Bissau is ranked 175th out of 177 in the United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Index, and one of the poorest countries in the world by World Bank evaluations. The nation has been identified as the next narco-state, with drug smugglers taking advantage of the dysfunctional administration in recent years- using the country as a major a transit point for cocaine on its way to Europe, often with the complicity of the armed forces. Guinea-Bissau, where gender inequity is widespread, is one of eleven countries currently under review by experts from the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women. During an informal dialogue preceding the United Nations General Assembly debate on the Responsibility to Protect on July 23rd, the delegate from Guinea-Bissau reaffirmed the nation’s commitment to following human rights protocol and cooperating with the United Nations in their efforts to protect said rights. Sanha recognizes the challenges he confront, proclaiming that, "it is essential that the authority of the state is restored in order to assure the security and physical safety of all citizens," while campaigning this week.

The International Community hopes that the election results “will enable the consolidation of democracy and credibility ... and enable stability and development," as worded by Desejado Lima da Costa, the country's electoral chief. 150 international observers, including the African Union, European Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP), confirmed that the election was held peacefully and took place without major incident. Brazil, which provided technical assistance, financial support, and poll monitors to the fellow former Portuguese colony, congratulated Guinea-Bissau on the "transparent and free" proceedings. In an official statement, France expressed hope that the newly-elected president “will lead the country on the path of peace, in the wake of the violence that has plunged Guinea-Bissau into mourning since President Vieira’s assassination.”

Some remain unconvinced of Guinea-Bissau’s potential reform. "The feeling at the international and national level is one of powerlessness and reluctance to believe that Guinea-Bissau can have a different situation in the future," said Franco Nulli, head of the European Union delegation in the country. Still, Nulli acknowledged the encouraging success of the November 2008 legislative elections, in which the PAIGC won 67 of 100 seats. Nulli also noted that, “after the March assassinations, the army stayed in [its] place and did not - as is the case in other countries - take power."

It is agreed that "what the country clearly needs is security sector reform as well as institutional capacity building," as worded by IHS Global Insight analyst Kissy Agyeman-Togobo. Regional diplomats wait for Sanha to prove his ability to withstand military pressure, knowing that the true test for the new establishment will be making Guinea-Bissau’s military to respect civilian leadership and preventing their interference in politics. West Africa analyst for Oxford Analytica, Richard Reeve, is skeptical of Sanha’s chances and believes that, “whatever the balance of power between institutions, it’s the military that calls the shots in Guinea-Bissau, and that’s not going to change whoever wins this election.” It is true that in the past 15 years, none of the three presidents of Guinea-Bissau completed their five-year terms. They were either overthrown by an influential army or assassinated by the military.

The military has already expressed interest in the country’s political future. On the day of the election, army chief of staff General Zamora Induta urged the candidates to “resort to judicial means in the event of an (electoral) challenge to avoid creating disturbances.” For years, judicial rulings in Guinea-Bissau have been subject to the persuasion of those who possess power, i.e. military officials. “The military is more opposed to the PAIGC than the PRS because the PAIGC has been much more overt about security sector reform,” said Reeve. Though they have not interfered up until this point, it is doubtful that the military will release their control over the country anytime soon.

The government of Guinea-Bissau can not adequately fortify their institutions against military influence alone. Without strong institutions, democracy will not be able to function in Guinea-Bissau. A clear separation of powers within the new government must be defined. President Sanha has identified his objectives, yet has in public statements welcomed help surmounting his resource limitations. The IIJD echoes President Sanha’s request for aid as he engages in this considerable undertaking. Technical and financial assistance to help develop lasting socio-economic sustainability are vital to the future of Guinea-Bissau and by extension the whole region, if not the entire globe. The IIJD encourages the international community to follow Nigerian President yar’Adua in, “calling a Donor-Roundtable on Guinea Bissau in Abuja when I get back to ensure that we are able to get fund to assist the government to carry out institutional and security reforms and to carry out the economic investment that are required for the government to stabilize and for the regime to solve the problems of security and economic challenges,” as he stated was his intention during his recent state trip to Brazil.

 The IIJD cautions that without significant reforms, the protection of the democratic process can not be ensured. An independent justice system must be established in order to stabilize the country. It is necessary for the international community to support the development of a prison system and the strengthening of the police force by providing training and resources. The IIJD continues to support the 2007 UNODC plan to assist in security service reform, judicial police improvements, and the establishment of a jail in Guinea-Bissau, and calls upon the international community to support increased transparency and accountability in administrative practices and further development of the infrastructure.