The National Electoral Commission announced last Thursday that the second round of the Guinea-Bissau presidential election has been scheduled for August 2nd.  The run-off is to take place between the two frontrunners of the June 28th vote, former heads of state Kumba Yala and the ruling party’s Malam Bacai Sanha. Sanha and Yala received 39.6% and 29.4% of the vote, respectively.

Eleven candidates participated in the preliminary election, which was described by European Union observers as “well-organized, peaceful, free, and transparent,” with no irregularities or major incidents, although it was suggested that the low voter turnout can be attributed to the country’s current climate of fear and intimidation.

These proceedings aim to replace assassinated President Joao Bernardo Vieira. The president was shot on March 2nd in retaliation to an explosion only hours earlier at military headquarters resulting in the death of General Batista Tagme Na Waie, for which Waie’s supporters hold Vieira responsible. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed the need for a “credible and transparent process of investigation” of these killings. International parties recognize that current circumstances within Guinea-Bissau do not accommodate simultaneous law enforcement and the protection of civil rights, as the military force has the power to interfere with just democratic processes.

Early this June, presidential candidate and former minister Baciro Dabo and defense minister Helder Proenca were killed by soldiers on suspicion of plotting a coup. Mohamed Jalloh, Analyst for the International Crisis Group, predicts that “the commission of inquiry established to investigate the killings is likely to be fatally weakened by a lack of political will to uncover the truth. There is a widespread fear of intimidation and retaliation,” which “reflects the inability of the justice system to counter impunity. It is not able to deal with the widespread criminality linked to drug trafficking that has engulfed the country.

Guinea-Bissau has been recognized as the next narco-state, having become a major transit point for cocaine moving between Latin America and Europe, and is described by Western intelligence sources as “the worst drugs trafficking problem we’ve ever encountered on the continent.” It is estimated that each day one ton of pure Colombian cocaine passes through the country, and that monthly trans-shipments through GB are worth more than 10 times its gross annual national earnings. (The World Bank ranks Guinea-Bissau as the fifth poorest country in the world).

Justice Minister Namuano Gomes doubts the abilities of the Guinea-Bissau justice system and security forces to terminate this trafficking operation, explaining that there has been no real coordination between police, border control, customs, and the army since the 1999 civil war. In response to what he believes are unreasonable international demands “to patrol our uninhabited islands when we can't even patrol the areas where our people live,” Gomes posed the question, “how do they expect policemen who are not getting paid to hand in bags of drugs and receive nothing in return?

The justice system of Guinea-Bissau is not equipped to manage this situation. The police force lacks resources, the judiciary lacks security, and there is no formal prison establishment. Most prisoners are held in makeshift detention facilities on military bases- thus even when convictions are made; the government does not have the means to incarcerate for much longer than a year. Judges have admitted apprehension over issuing sentences, particularly for dangerous criminals, for fear of retaliation. In order to establish a stable environment in which the justice system can be reformed, military control over all political activities within the country must be loosened.

Because of the government’s inability to pay salaries or severance packages to members of the country’s large army, many soldiers are allegedly receiving compensation from drug traffickers in exchange for providing security. There have been reports of soldiers preventing judicial police investigations, suspects vanishing shortly after posting bail, and disappearances of intercepted drug shipments. A number of high ranking political, military, and security service figures are allegedly involved in drug trafficking activities. In addition to obstructing judicial investigations, the military forces are also responsible for pressure put on judicial officials, who have received death threats after publicly accusing high ranking figures. Army spokespeople deny claims that military officials are involved with any drug trade, and call attention to the lack of evidence supporting such claims.

It is hoped that the results of the presidential election will accompany the introduction of a stronger governmental institution in Guinea-Bissau, which has been plagued by political corruption and instability since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. However, the military’s overwhelming political control can not be overcome without international assistance. There are no satisfactory measures currently in place to prevent the military’s interference in future political operations. While for several years financial donors have been hesitant to provide aid to Guinea-Bissau due to its governmental instability and status as a poor development partner, practical contributions to strengthen the infrastructure can be of great value. For example, in addition to distributing food in the northwest São Domingos region of the country, the International Committee of the Red Cross has begun supplying some of the more vulnerable communities with rice huskers, groundnut grinders, fishing-nets, motor boats, and bicycles. These measures are intended to not only provide short-term relief to such communities, but also to help develop long-term sustainability.