The three-month old coalition government of President Joao Bernardo Vieira and Prime Minister N’Dafa Cabi in Guinea Bissau is at a crossroads. The international community is pressing the government to conduct free and fair elections. Yet the government has just postponed the legislative elections due in March 2008 by one year, now to be held in conjunction with the March 2009 presidential elections. The rational given for this delay is reportedly due to a lack in funds [1]. In this case, the decision to postpone elections is not necessarily a sign of corruption or power-mongering. In fact, this move may be Guinea Bissau’s last hope for sustaining its nascent turn to democratic and legitimate governance after years of civil war in the late 1990’s.

This decision comes three months after the ascendancy of Martinho N’Dafa Cabi to the prime ministerial position from the vice presidency of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde. A vote of no confidence ousted from power former prime minister Aristide Gomes, an ally of Vieira’s. N’Dafo Cabi’s appointment was agreed upon by the President and opposition parties in negotiations Vieira called. The coalition government thus represents an actual commitment to, and an important step in, the democratic transition of the post-conflict society [2].

The government now has two priorities: first, to reform the failing economy by boosting local business and thereby decreasing people’s dependence on the cocaine drug trade for sustenance; and second, to pay public servants retroactively, all of whose salaries are several months in arrears due to the impoverished state of the nation. Guinea Bissau is reportedly the world’s 5th poorest country, and the fulfillment of this vision is one the region and international community should support [3]. 

Guinea Bissau’s renaissance may be on the horizon. This is because the postponement of elections may encourage the commitment of much needed foreign aid. The UN Security Council and Secretary General Ban Ki Moon have issued two separate statements calling upon the international community to rally to Guinea Bissau’s side [4, 5, 6]. The coalition government is a hopeful sign for investors; the sharing of power between multiple parties is an internal oversight mechanism that can ensure the safety and responsible handling of investments. Foreign aid aimed at economic reform would reduce the dependency of people on the drug trade, thereby encouraging local crop production and exportation. Therefore, if money were donated to the nation, it would create an atmosphere of economic stability, a prerequisite for free and fair elections. It appears that the coalition government is eager to offer free and fair elections, and the cancellation of the scheduled elections should be incentive for the required funds to be committed. Additionally, the recent IMF mission in Guinea Bissau has agreed to adopt a three-million dollar post-conflict support program in the nation, if foreign aid will first meet the missing budgetary needs of the government [7].

Although it is often not the case in the developing world, foreign aid to today’s Guinea Bissau may indeed help solidify the democratic foundations the government has laid. Elections are an exit strategy for the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea Bissau; their exit would be a sign of veritable progress and perhaps even self-sustainability in Guinea Bissau [8]. The government thus has an interest in providing free and fair elections.

The litmus test for the democratic transition of the nation would be allocation of foreign aid (were it to be offered), the efficient delegation of responsibilities and the carrying out of transparent and fair future elections. The postponement of elections then does not seem to indicate the government’s backsliding into corruption but the effective politicking that will galvanize the support they need.

The IIJD supports the reinforcing of institutional and systemic transparency, legitimacy, accountability and democracy in all governments. The national institutions must be strong, honest and efficient before elections take place, otherwise the nation risks unraveling further in the interim period between governments. Accordingly, if the delay in the elections is truly in the name of increased transparency, legitimacy and fairness, the IIJD supports the decision of Guinea Bissau to delay elections. However, since foreign aid is easily mismanaged, the government must exhibit great caution and honesty in the handling of foreign support in order to guarantee that the funds will be used to pay government ministers equally, and to hold new elections within the year promised.