Over the past few months, the situation in Somalia has taken a turn for the worse.  16 years after the ousting of the dictator, Siad Barre, the war-battered and impoverished nation has still not seen the establishment of a permanent government apparatus.  Indeed, the recent effort by the Ethiopia-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to establish a government is no less than the 14th attempt to do so.  Since December, violence has escalated throughout the country, especially in Mogadishu, as the prospect of a national reconciliation conference looms in the yet undetermined future.  Unfortunately, a confluence of factors has made peace during these times an unlikely proposition for the near future.

In the December of 2006, Ethiopia-backed forces successfully brought down the rule of the Union of Islamic Courts, which held power for much of 2006. The TFG has taken power in its place, but violent struggles have continued in the capital city of Mogadishu.  President Abdullahi Yusuf, who has been the president of the TFG since 2004, believes that it is necessary to rid the country of the Islamist insurgents in order to attain peace. As a result of the increased spat of violence in the past few months, more than 340,000 residents have fled while most of the injured do not have access to adequate healthcare. [1]  After visiting Somalia for himself, US Africa Envoy Jendayi Frazer declared that the situation in Somalia represented a “worse displacement crisis than Sudan’s Darfur region.” [2]

In large part due to a deep-seated national distrust of Ethiopia, which many consider Somalia’s “traditional enemy”, the Somalis are suspicious of Ethiopia’s involvement in bringing down the Union of Islamic Courts and, as a result, do not support the Ethiopia-backed TFG.  Anti-TFG groups believe that the TFG is made up of warlords who are selfishly using the help of Somalia’s “traditional enemy” in order to consolidate their power. [3]  The suspicion over Ethiopia’s true intents and the TFG’s role in carrying out these intents is shared by many Somalis.  According to a researcher in Mogadishu who refers to herself as Safia, life is harsh in Somalia.  “The situation has been made worse by Ethiopian interference.  Prices are rocketing, unemployment is rising and chaos prevails. Everyone believes Ethiopia is only after its own interests in Somalia.  I don't see any popular support for the new government”, she says. [4]  

The general distrust of Ethiopia as it continues its fight against Islamist insurgents will continue to be a large obstacle to the TFG’s gaining credibility among the people it is trying to govern, which makes it all the more important for peacekeeping troops from the UN and the African Union (AU) to help.  The AU has said that it will commit forces numbering 8,000, but only 1,700 forces from Uganda have arrived so far.  According to US envoy to Africa, Jendayi Frazer, full UN peacekeeping forces will arrive in several months.  Until then, the Ethiopian forces must remain, as premature withdrawal would result in, in the words of AU chairman, Alpha Oumar Konare, “catastrophe.” [5] 

However, there are voices that see the Ethiopia-backed TFG as the only solution to Somalia.  Somalia’s ambassador to Ethiopia, Abdikarin Farah, believes that Somalis should embrace the TFG as an opportunity to gain peace “for the first time in many years,” and to see the “return of a functioning government that has the support of the international community.” [6] Says Omar Alihashi, the publisher of Hiiraan Online: “Why oppose the TFG when there is no alternative?” [7] 

Despite garnering little support from among the Somali people, the international community has been supportive of the TFG.  The European Union’s General Affairs and External Relations Council has called on the TFG “to engage in an inclusive, meaningful and consensual dialogue involving all sections of Somali society.”  Moreover, “the Council expects the Transitional Federal Institutions to convene the National Reconciliation Congress as soon as possible," and it pledges its support, “provided that the TFG [Transitional Federal Government] will ensure an all inclusive and transparent process.” [8] 

As of yet, there has not been a date set for such a national reconciliation conference to take place.

While the recent escalation of fighting between Ethiopian and Islamist forces and the increase in chaos are troubling, the IIJD hopes that the Somali people will be able to put its support behind the TFG as it endeavors to hold a national reconciliation conference.  The constant infighting between the Somali factions must be stopped and transparent, fair, and peaceful dialogue must take place.  The IIJD further hopes that the European Union and the African Union will continue to send peacekeeping forces, but it is as important that the EU and the AU be active mediators in the reconciliation process.  Somalia deserves an end to its 16 years of violence.