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News and Publications
The IIJD Newsletter:
   
Zimbabwe: Situation Deteriorates Quickly
By Lisa Pendleton, The IIJD Media Team
April 24, 2008
Tension escalates as Zimbabwe's election results continue to be withheld from the public. International organizations have been disappointingly passive in their reaction to the mounting crisis, and President Mbeki of South Africa - the appointed mediator between Mugabe's government and the opposition - has so far proven to be ineffective as well.
It is clear that Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's long-time president, will not give up power easily. This is not surprising, given that he has retained power since Zimbabwe first established itself as an independent nation in 1980. The elections that were held on March 29th do nothing but reinforce the idea that Mugabe will resort to political corruption, repression and violence to maintain his stronghold on the country. These tactics closely resemble behavior during the 2002 election, which was strongly contested as fraudulent.
  
 
Although the country voted nearly three weeks ago, official presidential and parliamentary election results continue to be withheld from the public. Election officials originally announced that the opposition party had won the majority of seats in the parliament. This would have been the first time Mugabe's party, ZANU-PF, lost control of the parliament since 1980. However, election officials have recently announced that there will be a recount of ballots this Saturday, in 23 different districts. These are enough districts to switch the majority back to the governing party and secure ZANU-PF's continued control of the parliament [1]. On Tuesday a judge postponed the opposition's challenge to the recount [2].
  
 
Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition party, called for a "stay-away" on Tuesday in which Zimbabweans would refrain from going to work to protest the corrupt policies plaguing the elections, especially the scheduled recount. However, the protest was rendered generally ineffective due to public fear of punishment for participating in a protest against Mugabe [3]. The country is currently suffering from rampant hyperinflation, and 80% unemployment. Zimbabwe's minority of citizens who are employed are understandably unwilling to put their jobs on the line for the stay-away. Punishment could also come in the form of physical violence - in the village of Nurewa, east of Harare, a mob of young Mugabe supporters attacked villagers in defiance to posters that had been hung in favor of the opposition. Several villagers were badly beaten [4].
 
 
The New York Times has quoted anonymous Western diplomats as stating that they "were increasingly pessimistic that Mugabe would give up power willingly... it appear[s] that he and his party [are] manipulating the electoral system to drag out the process, restore public fear and deprive the opposition of its political momentum [5]." Journalists in the area have been arrested, as well an incoming member of the parliament. Some election officials have also been arrested on what their lawyers consider baseless charges, supposedly in an attempt to bully locals who run the polls into acceptance of election fraud and vote-rigging. Mr. Tsvangirai's lawyer has also been arrested [6].
 
 
Three different institutions - the United Nations, the African Union and the Southern African Development Community - have proven ineffective in their reactions to the Zimbabwe crisis. Though international pressure to release election results has heightened, the UN Security Council is unable to come to consensus on action to be taken in Zimbabwe. A key factor in this indecisiveness is the veto state of China, a long-time trade partner of the Zimbabwean state under Mugabe. Currently, there is a Chinese cargo ship stationed in a South African port loaded with 77 tons of small arms, purchased by the Zimbabwean military in the aftermath of the election. This is a very real indication as to the severity of the situation in Zimbabwe and how quickly the already rampant violence could escalate - as well as the complicit nature of both South Africa and China. Despite international pressure, the South African government claims that it is unable to intervene in this matter because the ships papers are in order [7].
 
 
The African Union - an organization that should be actively engaged in upholding the standards of democracy in the region - has also refrained from taking any strong actions against Mugabe's government. Instead, they avoided the subject during a meeting with the UN Security Council in New York on Wednesday, trying to revert attention to general peace-keeping tactics rather than put together a decisive framework for action in Zimbabwe. Similar passiveness characterizes the Southern African Development Community's reaction to the crisis - though the institution stated that results should be released, criticism of Mugabe and his government were intentionally avoided [8].
  
   
President Mbeki of South Africa, perhaps the individual positioned best to wield influence in Zimbabwe, has also played a passive role in the crisis. Appointed as mediator between Mugabe's government and the opposition runners, Mbeki is quoted as denying there is a crisis situation in Zimbabwe (though he now refutes this reference). Acknowledging international pressure, Mbeki has finally announced on Friday that election results should be made public, but has once again resisted taking definitive diplomatic action with Mugabe. [9]  
   
One of the bleakest reports came from the New York Times, in which it was suggested that the situation in Zimbabwe could come to mirror Kenya's recent post-election conflict if the status quo is not broken [10]. The IIJD stresses that this is a crisis situation and needs to be dealt with as such. The AU and SADC need to uphold the tenants of democracy in ensuring that the election results are released and representative of the citizens' electoral choices. In times of international crisis, institutions are to act as the stabilizing pillars that ensure member states' compliance with the rules of governance. When individual leaders such as Mugabe begin to make decisions in their own best interest, this careful balance is upset and countries such as Zimbabwe move closer to joining the long list of smoldering conflicts in the region. The IIJD insists that leaders take responsibility, and commence international action in order to prevent the further deterioration of civil society.  
   
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