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The IIJD Newsletter:
   
Nigeria: Tribunal's ruling shifts focus to Yar'Adua's promises of reform.
By Matt Diffey
March 7, 2008
As President Yar'Adua retains his hold on the presidency, can he reform the deeply flawed electoral process that put him into power?
A five-member tribunal has rejected challenges from the two opposition candidates who contested the results of the 2007 presidential election that put Umaru Yar'Adua into power in Nigeria. The opposition will appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, but it appears that Mr. Yar'Adua will remain in power, which analysts say will provide stability for Africa's most populated nation. [1] Now that Mr. Yar'Adua's position seems more solidified, his response to demands for electoral reform and his ability to deliver on his promises for an end to domestic corruption will define his presidency. [2]
  
 
Despite it's decision, which upheld Mr. Yar'Adua's victory, the tribunal did recognize that there were serious issues with the election which, according to Human Rights Watch, included violent coercion, vote-rigging, and corruption. [3] However, the tribunal ruled that it could not be proved that these transgressions affected the final outcome, thus there was no legal basis to conduct another election. [4] Electoral monitoring groups have criticized the decision, arguing that it did not place enough blame on the Independent National Electoral Commission, which is responsible for conducting and monitoring the elections. [5] The problem with the investigation is that meddling was believed to be so pervasive that it is hard to offer reliable evidence of exactly what took place. It is difficult if not impossible to analyze which votes were the result of coercive tactics and which votes were cast legitimately. [6] Pending the result of an appeal to the Supreme Court, Yar'Adua will remain in power, promising to fix the corrupt electoral process which has overshadowed his presidency thus far. [7]
  
 
Although there are glaring flaws in the electoral process, it is noteworthy that the petitions from the opposition parties have been seriously considered by the judicial system. With his presidency now appearing more secure, the question remains how sincere Mr. Yar'Adua is in his promises for governmental reform. There certainly have been some positive indicators of Mr. Yar'Adua's commitment: he recently rejected a bill the National Assembly had passed to increase their expenditure (which includes their salaries) by a whopping 78%. [8] Observer's also cite the annulment of the election of David Mark, the president of the Senate, as evidence of an increased sense of independence by the judiciary. [9] Although these developments seem promising, skepticism about Mr. Yar'Adua's effectiveness to combat corruption still seems warranted. As Chris Albin-Lackey of Human Rights Watch pointed out, Mr. Yar'Adua may be just as loyal to those who got him into power as his predecessors. [10] Mr. Yar'Adua also faces significant challenges reforming the state-run oil company, an institution that has failed to allocate its massive revenues toward advancing development in Nigeria.
  
 
The 2007 Nigerian presidential election was despicable by any standard. Any country whose election is so dominated by meddling tactics cannot be called a true democracy. The IIJD now calls on President Yar'Adua and his staff to take the task of reforming the electoral system that put them into power seriously; constituting an independent committee to suggest changes in the electoral process was an admirable start. [11] The IIJD encourages the legislature to adopt the recommendations of this committee and make them binding by law. Those who participate in electoral interference should not receive impunity if Nigeria wants to avoid future crises as the result of elections.
  
 
The IIJD believes that merely holding elections does not guarantee the expression of the will of the people. For democratic elections to be legitimate, they must be fair and independent. Truly democratic elections require a complex institutional framework that allows voters to not be subject to coercion and that produces results reflective of the citizen's actual desires, not the party best able to manipulate the vote. They also require an independent judiciary to oversee disputes that arise as a result of the election. It appears that despite the failures of the 2007 presidential election, Mr. Yar'Adua is taking steps to move Nigeria's electoral process towards one that produces more legitimate results. If he can successfully implement electoral changes and deliver on his promises to stifle corruption, the elections of 2007 may fade into history; but they will not be forgotten.
  
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